Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 4.679569 5.493358 6.393123 7.459832 8.687982 10.055658 11.692043
2025-08-24 3.341604 4.410198 5.720374 7.436109 9.613912 12.275345 15.762333
2025-08-31 2.514392 3.666191 5.206869 7.397995 10.409684 14.375603 19.959504
2025-09-07 2.072055 3.288752 5.040348 7.708731 11.624499 17.103307 25.276351
2025-09-14 1.690126 2.896041 4.750200 7.752160 12.417300 19.296726 30.081340
2025-09-21 1.402660 2.577712 4.495585 7.775310 13.138687 21.422608 34.984992
2025-09-28 1.179649 2.313705 4.269639 7.786264 13.809310 23.507941 40.014379
2025-10-05 1.108044 2.297519 4.447372 8.479179 15.656682 27.620744 48.644412
2025-10-12 0.987672 2.164879 4.393823 8.751474 16.808157 30.696875 55.869436
2025-10-19 0.886007 2.047493 4.345642 9.017759 17.966453 33.881806 63.563418
2025-10-26 0.774494 1.886881 4.186266 9.044792 18.678434 36.341000 70.206548
2025-11-02 0.653220 1.679944 3.898949 8.774357 18.784013 37.702449 74.989872
2025-11-09 0.536700 1.462243 3.559235 8.359778 18.580933 38.518906 78.951898
2025-11-16 0.460428 1.324628 3.371260 8.239301 18.959126 40.486391 85.296930
2025-11-23 0.398836 1.210045 3.215480 8.164769 19.420754 42.659236 92.244450
2025-11-30 0.368947 1.172790 3.235897 8.493068 20.786542 46.777279 103.421599
2025-12-07 0.327867 1.094788 3.142128 8.536359 21.520075 49.652739 112.316603
2025-12-14 0.291337 1.021278 3.046696 8.560182 22.208683 52.492673 121.380447
2025-12-21 0.259057 0.952808 2.952323 8.571632 22.866773 55.323045 130.662694
2025-12-28 0.258101 0.983969 3.135956 9.328103 25.400168 62.511399 149.942133
2026-01-04 0.240307 0.955405 3.146319 9.625253 26.836331 67.356263 164.454293
2026-01-11 0.223841 0.927491 3.153912 9.915823 28.287841 72.360691 179.719035
2026-01-18 0.201485 0.872947 3.072328 9.945312 29.072203 75.878497 191.889641